Feb 18

Tricky Forecast for Next Storm

Another storm system and a couple of cold fronts will move into the area beginning late Sunday night and into Monday morning, the big story on Monday will be the temperature shock and the chance for freezing fog and maybe even a bit of freezing rain!

Monday Morning — Ice Will be a Concern

Ice Accumulation | Castle Rock Ice | Palmer Divide Weather | Nam3k Ice Accumulation Colorado

Some models are picking up ice accumulations in a few areas, this will have to be watched closely for Monday morning.

Models are picking up on the potential for ice accumulation for some areas of the front range. In the NAM3K model to the left, don’t focus on the exact areas so much. Focus more on the fact that ice accumulation  is possible in some areas.

As a cold front sweeps across the area Sunday night, a layer of shallow moisture and much colder temperatures will condense to form fog. Since temperatures will drop below freezing, fog and any precipitation could possibly freeze to create ice.

This is something we will need to watch closely but expect the potential for travel impacts Monday morning for areas that see ice.


Monday Evening — Shot of Snow and Travel Impacts Possible

Nam3k shows banded snowfall pushing onto the plains sometime after 3pm. We will have to watch this closely to see if it will impact Monday evening commute!

As we continue through the day Monday, a reinforcing shot of cold air will push across the mountains and onto the plains. Notice the bands of snowfall predicted by the Nam3K model on the right, this is a snapshot of what this model thinks things will look like right around 5pm.

The issue here is snow looks to start sometime around the rush hour (maybe at the tail end, we’ll wait for more detials) and persist through the evening and into the nighttime hours. This could cause travel difficulties for any folks caught under these snow bands.

Remember, snow can fall with moderate to heavy intensity under snowfall bands and cause road conditions to quickly deteriorate!

Long story short; we will need to keep a close eye on model and forecast data during the day Monday to see how this evolves. For now, count on the possibility of a rough commute on Monday evening.


Storm Snowfall Totals and Impacts

Anytime you see models showing banded snowfall it introduces uncertainty to snowfall forecasts. The reason for this is that while models are great at showing a storm will have banded snowfall, they’re not great at showing exactly where they end up. Since snowfall can be intense under these bands areas under them tend to over perform on snow while areas just 5-10 miles away from them may see no snow at all. The best way to forecast snowfall in cases like these is to look at probabilities, or the most likely ranges for snowfall and tailor a forecast around those numbers.

If you look at a place like Castle Rock you see the highest probability is that snowfall will end up between 0 and 4 inches. We can use this combined with that the models are showing to make a forecast. Similarly we can look at snowfall probabilities for areas in Elbert County:

You can see similarities for places in Elbert County but notice how much higher the chances are at receiving 0 inches of snow area. This is something to consider because most locations in Elbert County are further away from upslope along the front range and the Northern bias the models are showing with this storm verifies these numbers a bit more as well.

So with that, here are the most likely total storm snowfall accumulation ranges with the data we have as of tonight:

Castle Rock: 0-3 inches
Highlands Ranch:
1-4 inches
Franktown:
1-4 inches (terrain helps upslope a bit here!)
Parker:
1-4 inches

Elbert: 0-3 inches
Elizabeth:
0-3 inches
Kiowa:
0-3 inches
**Don’t forget the higher chance of no accumulation for areas in Elbert County!


Summary

That’s a wrap for this forecast analysis! Monday is going to be an unsettled day with a chance of freezing precip in the morning and snow in the evening. Keep a close eye on the potential for travel impacts especially if snow bands set up along the Palmer Divide or Tech Center of Denver on Monday evening.

We will keep an eye on things Monday and pass along any updates as needed. Have a great Sunday evening!

 

Feb 14

Midweek Update – More Snow on the Way?

The big story along the front range of Colorado today has been the wind gusts. Most stations in the Castle Rock area reported between 40-50mph gusts with our place near Elbert reaching over 60mph. No surprises here as La Nina later winters and early springs are notoriously windy.

Castle Rock Co Weather | Weather Castle Rock CO | Castle Rock Weather | High Wind Gusts | Weather Summary

Castle Rock Weather Summary for February 14, 2018, notice the high winds from the Southwest!

The wind is the major story across most of the state but in the mountains the story will be snowfall combining with the wind to create hazardous travel conditions.

Closer to Home

Winds will decrease slightly tonight after sunset but expect gusty conditions to remain through the night into tomorrow morning with strong winds mainly out of the West.

A cold front will move through tomorrow afternoon and you’ll notice it due to a drop in temperature and a big shift in wind direction. Winds today have mainly been out of the Southwest and West, the frontal passage will shift winds to the North and drop temperatures.

Colorado Weather | Castle Rock Weather | Palmer Divide Weather

We are still tracking a slight chance of snow with this storm system but just like many we’ve seen this past year, the direction out of the Northwest means there is limited moisture available. You know what that means! Wind, colder temperatures and small amounts of snow.

Castle Rock Co Weather | Castle Rock Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Snow chance

Nam3k Snowfall Model through 11PM Thursday

The latest Nam3K shows scant snowfall across the plains for Thursday night into Friday morning. It is worth keeping an eye on the Palmer Divide region especially East of Castle Rock as many models have a “bullseye” over that area, but keep in mind a bullseye in this case means an inch of snow where most other areas get nothing.

The timing with models varies with the snowfall but suffice to say, be prepared for the POTENTIAL of travel impacts late Thursday night into Friday morning. With the warmer mid levels of the atmosphere we can’t count out the possibility of freezing rain or fog creating some ice on the roads for Friday morning.

Stay tuned here, we’ll keep an eye on this storm and be sure to pass  any updates along. This storm looks pretty minor overall, but as you know things can change in an instant!

Curious to why we get freezing rain and fog? I posted this nifty article explaining why!

 

 

 

Feb 09

Another Weekend, Another Chance for Snow!

Another unsettled stretch of weather on tap to end this week and into the weekend. Many of you noticed the fog and low clouds on the way into work this morning. This is a result of our first cold front moving in overnight and bringing some low level moisture to the front range. Our second front and associated energy will move in later in the day on Saturday (depending on which model you believe.)

Snowfall forecast | Castle Rock Weather | Castle Rock Co Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Colorado Snow

Composite reflectivity for about 2pm Saturday from Nam3K

A quick look at the Nam3k shows snow moving in during the early afternoon hours and spreading snow from the Northwest to the Southeast. The key word here is “Northwest” and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, storms moving in from the Northwest are rarely something to get excited about if you like big snow.

The other thing to notice is how the snowfall energy is elongated and stretched from the mountains out onto the plains. This means the storm will most likely be shallow and limited for moisture (no surprise here given it’s a Northwest storm.)

When we take a look at the snowfall we see:

Snowfall forecast | Castle Rock Weather | Castle Rock Co Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Colorado Snow

Accumulated snowfall through 11pm Saturday night

This model shows banding possible across some locations East of the mountains and its areas that set up under those snow bands that will see the most snow. Those higher numbers are expected to be in the 3-4 inch range across the Palmer Divide but remember this will only happen where those snowfall bands set up. I like to reiterate a lot: models are great at showing that there WILL BE snowfall bands but terrible at predicting EXACTLY where they set up.

Another interesting thing to look at: the GFS shows significantly less snow, a quicker moving storm and the storm’s timeline arriving a bit later on Saturday:

Snowfall forecast | Castle Rock Weather | Castle Rock Co Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Colorado Snow

You’ll notice the much lower snow amounts through the storm’s exit late Saturday night but the presence of snowfall bands are still there. That’s one thing we can be pretty sure of is that banded snowfall will accompany this storm.

What To Expect

This storm is a tricky forecast because snowfall amounts will vary greatly based on where those snowfall bands set up, we’ve seen storms dump 6 inches on Monument Hill while leaving Castle Rock with a dusting. We are pretty confidence most areas will see SOME amount of snow accumulation, but some will see very little while some will see more. There is no indication this will be a major storm and the forecasts and meteorology just don’t support it; so no need to run to the store to stock up!

Snowfall Chances

Chances are good most areas across the Palmer Divide will see some snowfall accumulation, with our latest data I’d put the chance at 70%-90%

Expected Snowfall Accumulation

Forecasts call for 1-4 inches for the Castle Rock area, with slightly higher amounts South towards Monument Hill and Monument; generally 2-5 inches. Areas in the foothills like Western Douglas County should fall in that 2-5 inch range and areas along the Eastern Palmer Divide should fall within the 1-4 inch range.

As with most storms we’ve seen this year; bet on the lower end of all those snowfall forecasts unless you end up under a snow band. Even if you do, getting more than 4-5 inches for any areas along the Palmer Divide is pretty unlikely (with a few choice exceptions.)

Travel Impacts

As the atmosphere has saturated a bit we’ve seen freezing fog already on Friday morning. Roads may be slick in a few spots going into Friday night but the main impact will be Saturday. Timing is still a question but expect road conditions to deteriorate a bit Saturday afternoon and evening. Icy and snowpack conditions will be possible mainly under those areas of more intense snowfall (under snowfall bands) in other areas we expect only light to moderate travel impacts.

Summary

I very much wish we could see a different type of storm and see more snowfall but the truth is this storm looks just like the past several we’ve had. It just doesn’t have the setup we like for a big snow along the Front Range. We will keep an eye out for a change but sadly the atmosphere and some of the ocean conditions are not conducive to a big snow storm heading our way at this time.

La Nina’s are historically a very dry type of pattern for Eastern Colorado and while big snow storms are rare they can happen during these setups. We just aren’t seeing any evidence of many big storms coming our way at this point. Stay tuned!

Feb 05

Next Chance for Snow Visits the Area Tonight

A new storm will begin to impact the area this afternoon and into the evening bringing cooler air and even a bit of moisture to the state. The clear winner here in terms of snowfall will be the mountains, which is great news as they continue to build their snowpack from record low numbers.

For us along the front range, the forecast looks a bit more bleak if hoping for a big snow. This system, like so many others this year moves in from the Northwest and if you’ve followed us most of this snow season (or longer) you know we don’t get super excited about snowfall along the Palmer Divide form storms with this track.

Snowfall forecast | Castle Rock Weather | Castle Rock Co Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Colorado Snow

Snowfall totals look rather unimpressive for areas East of the divide from this storm.

You’ll notice the streaks of snowfall across Northeastern Colorado and the Eastern Plains. This “banded” snowfall is similar to what happened with our last storm, some of those areas could receive a few inches of snow under the heavier bands. This is caused by areas of more intense lift under a strong jet stream.

Jet stream induced snowfall “bands” are a bit of a wildcard when it comes to forecasting, models are good at pointing out if we will see these but not great at pinpointing the areas where they exactly set up. As such, a storm system like this is harder to predict and causes a lot of busted forecasts.

Snowfall forecast | Castle Rock Weather | Castle Rock Co Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Colorado Snow

Remember this storm dropping nearly 6 inches of snow on Fort Collins while areas South of Denver remained under partly cloudy skies?

Much like that last storm though, the greatest area of lift seems confined to the Northern and Northeastern part of the state. This means it’s highly unlikely that a band of heavier snow makes its way down over Castle Rock or the Palmer Divide. Still, we can’t rule out the chance of very light snow here and there.

Quick Storm Forecast

Snowfall Chances

30-40% chance that we see snow in and around the Castle Rock area.

Expected Snowfall Accumulation

Forecasts call for 0-2 inches, I’m really leaning towards the 0-1 inch with heavier emphasis on less than .5 inches. This storm just doesn’t have the setup to produce much snow and I suspect many areas along the Palmer Divide will see no snow accumulation.

Travel Impacts

Just like the past few storms, we can’t rule out freezing fog or drizzle, but chances for this aren’t great. Still, be ready for possible icy conditions on the road for Tuesday morning.

Summary

Overall, not much to this storm more than a bit of an annoyance. Sadly we don’t see a lot of chances for much accumulating snow in our 5-7 day outlook. A few disturbances move through from time to time so hopefully one can set up and surprise us.

Until then, keep praying for snow down here, it’s getting very dry!

 

Jan 23

January 21, 2018 Storm Snow Totals and Summary


This interactive map shows the latest data from the National Weather Service and CoCoRaHS. To see additional data of each point, hover over the point or click on the point for an information window. Scrolling and zooming can be done with the mouse wheel or on-map control buttons.

Snowfall measurements made by trained observers, observers or CoCoRaHS volunteers follow strict guidelines to prevent outlying measurements caused by drifting and account for surface irregularities.

Official Measurement for Castle Rock Colorado From This Storm:
6.5 Inches of Snow Accumulation

See Our Forecast Articles Leading Up To This Storm
Forecast Review and Analysis
  • Snow accumulation forecast for Castle Rock area was finalized at 5-10 inches
    • Based on the reported amounts in and around the Castle Rock area, we would call the snowfall forecast verified. In most cases, the 3-7 inch range would have sufficed as well.
  • Main impacts were strong winds, icy and slushy road conditions through the day Sunday
    • Based on the timing of snowfall, travel impacts and slick conditions, we would call the impacts forecast verified

Overall Forecast Grade for This Storm: Excellent


Summary

Even though the dry nature of the snow will limit moisture, we still got much more out of this storm than we have with any of the storms we’ve had this year. Sadly it looks like another drier period is beginning after this storm exits the region.

I did some digging, Castle Rock has not seen this much snow since April 17, 2016!

04/17/2016NA15.0NANANA

 

The latest round of snow moved some areas of Eastern and Northeastern Colorado into above average precipitation territory. Meanwhile the mountains are still very far behind!

 

Hopefully we can squeeze a bit more snow out of the atmosphere as we move into spring and into our snowier months of March and April. Hope everyone enjoyed the storm!

Jan 21

Winter Weather Alerts AM Update

Blizzard Warning | Winter Storm Warning | Winter Weather Advisory | Colorado Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Castle Rock CO Weather

Most of the winter weather alerts issues last night remain unchanged this morning with one exception. A Blizzard Warning has now been issued for areas East of Denver and Castle Rock.

Here’s the latest on all the winter weather alerts as of this morning:

Blizzard Warning

Duration:

BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT

Areas Included:

Agate, Hugo, Limon, Matheson, Crook,
Merino, Sterling, Peetz, Akron, Cope, Last Chance, Otis,
Julesburg, Ovid, Sedgwick, Amherst, Haxtun, and Holyoke

Hazards:

Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant
drifting of the snow is likely.
A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you.

Winter Storm Warning

Duration:

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON

Areas Included:

Arvada, Boulder, Golden, Lakewood,Longmont, Aurora, Brighton, City of Denver,
Denver International Airport, Highlands Ranch, Littleton, Parker,Castle Rock, Elbert, Fondis, Kiowa, Larkspur, Briggsdale, Grover,
Pawnee Buttes, Raymer, Stoneham, Brush, Fort Morgan, Goodrich,Wiggins, Bennett, Byers, Deer Trail, and Leader

Hazards:

Heavy snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel conditions.Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice are occurring. This will make travel very hazardous or
impossible

Winter Weather Advisory

Duration:

Until 2 PM MST this afternoon

Areas Included:

Western Colorado and Southern Colorado South of the Palmer Divide.

Hazards:

Plan on slippery road conditions. In addition, some reductions to visibility are expected
A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.


Forecast Update

Everything is more or less on track, the outer bands of the storm have begun to bring snow and wind to the area as of this morning. If you’re wondering where all the snow is… patience! The main energy of the storm is over Northwestern New Mexico this morning. As it moves Eastward later this morning and into this afternoon expect snow to intensify and winds to increase.

Blizzard Warning | Winter Storm Warning | Winter Weather Advisory | Colorado Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Castle Rock CO Weather

Latest HRRR run for accumulate storm snowfall totals. Still on track!

We will pass along any further updates throughout the day as needed, for now it’s best to stay home, relax enjoy time with the family or a movie and let the storm pass. Have a great day and stay warm!

 

Jan 20

Latest Storm Update – January 22, 2018 Storm Update

Latest Models

I will just show the latest Nam3k and GFS… unfortunately we are still just a bit far out to get anything reliable from the HRRR.

Snow Storm | Castle Rock Weather | Castle Rock CO Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Snow | Snowfall Forecast | January 22, 2018

GFS expected storm snowfall total as of 5PM run.

Snow Storm | Castle Rock Weather | Castle Rock CO Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Snow | Snowfall Forecast | January 22, 2018

Nam3K expected snowfall totals from 5PM run

As we’ve progressed through the timeline of this storm, models have had quite  a bit of consistence on snowfall totals and storm track, but this evening they began to diverge a bit. Is this bad, does it mean the storm is falling apart? Not necessarily!

What Does This Mean for the Storm?

I attribute this to a bit of late model “bounce” and given other data I see no reason to make changes to the forecast at this time.

Snow Storm | Castle Rock Weather | Castle Rock CO Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Snow | Snowfall Forecast | January 22, 2018

Current position of the trough shown on satellite imagery.

The trough bringing the energy is currently over Southern Nevada moving into Utah and pretty much where we expected it to be. The imagery and even some of the models show the storm a bit weaker than we anticipated but there will still be plenty of energy as it makes its way across the 4 corners region.

The NWS forecast still shows 5-10 inches of snow for Castle Rock and surrounding areas and we still like that range, but honestly wouldn’t be surprised if our earlier 3-7 inch range is the more accurate. It is possible with weakening of the storm that this area could see that 3-4 inch range we’ve been talking about.

Not Even Going to Talk About This One…

Snow Storm | Castle Rock Weather | Castle Rock CO Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Snow | Snowfall Forecast | January 22, 2018

The SREF ensembles show a mean of 10 inches… this seems possible but highly unlikely.

The SREF is well known for over-doing it sometimes, especially when we get a bit closer to zero hour with storms. I’m writing this off as an outlier right now and will wait to see what it looks like in the morning.

Probabilistic Snowfall Totals

When we begin to see uncertainty creeping into models at such a late hour we have to start looking at probabilities. Probabilistic forecasts show you not just a number for how much snow an area will receive, but several numbers and the probabilities behind them. This can give folks a better idea of how likely 5 inches of snow is versus 10 inches.

Snowfall probabilities for cities around Douglas County

You’ll notice Castle Rock has a decent probability (slightly better than 60%) of seeing snowfall exceed 6 inches, but that number drops off drastically for 8 and 12 inches. Give this data, if we reach the 5-10 inch mark that is forecast, I like the amounts right around 5-6 inches best, but there is a decent chance we could see less than that (3-5 inch range is very likely)

Snowfall probabilities for Elbert County

For those of us around Elbert, given our higher elevation and stronger upslope I like the 5-10 inch range better than Castle Rock.

Summary

So not much has changed from a forecast perspective, expect snow to be heavy at times, roads will be bad for a few hours especially East of Denver and South of Denver. Be prepared to just spend some time at home, it will make an excellent movie day!

Please understand though, the hype has run away with some people; this storm will not cripple the city for days. It will not trap you in your house and won’t be a “blizzard” type storm. I’m only saying this because though we’ve called it the “biggest snowstorm we’ve had in over a year” the fact is that any storm with more than 2 inches of snow meets that qualification. This will not be a March 2003 or October 1997, so please keep that in mind.

I will have another update as the storm will be ongoing on Sunday morning.

Jan 19

Winter Storm Watch Issued

Snow Storm | Castle Rock Weather | Castle Rock CO Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Snow | Snowfall Forecast | Winter Storm Watch | Winter Weather Alerts |January 22, 2018

IN regards to our weekend storm system The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for most of the Palmer Divide and Northeastern Colorado. Interestinly, Denver and Northern areas of the Palmer Divide are not included in the watch but bad weather can be seen around the fringes of watch/warning areas so don’t write those areas off.

Here’s the short and dirty details on the watch:

Timing/Duration

The Watch is effective 12AM Sunday through 5pM Sunday.

Hazards

Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing snow.

Preparedness Actions

Be prepared for deteriorating driving conditions later Saturday and into Sunday morning. Although the ground is warm a combination of moderate/heavy snow and strong winds will allow snow to begin accumulating quickly.

Expect moderate to significant travel difficulties in the morning and early afternoon hours on Sunday.

 

Our Take

The storm seems to be holding its own on the latest models out this afternoon. We think the NWS forecast of 4-8 inches in the watch area is realistic for some areas. We haven’t moved off the 3-7 inch range for Castle Rock and surrounding areas just yet, but expect a bigger forecast update this evening with updated snow totals.

Saturday will feature a warm day with breezy conditions; it will be an excellent chance to prepare for the storm on Sunday. Get any shopping or errands done you need on Saturday. This storm will not be a crippling blizzard and probably doesn’t warrant a run on the store. At most it will just mean travel issues on Sunday, conditions will improve quickly late Sunday night and into Monday.

Stay tuned for our updated forecast later today!

 

 

Jan 18

Potential for Larger Storm This Weekend

If you have weekend plans in the mountains or outdoors along the front range, you’ll want to follow the forecast closely over the next few days. A strong winter storm system is set to move into the great basin area of the United States and track towards the East into Colorado. Just like many storms, the ultimate track will make all the difference as to who sees snow and how much.

Snow Storm | Castle Rock Weather | Castle Rock CO Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Snow | 500mb Upper Air | January 22, 2018

500mb upper air forecast for Sunday 11AM from GFS model

The GFS is in agreement with many models that the trough will eject over Southern Colorado. This isn’t something we’ve seen from a storm system so far this year, hence why we think this might be a bit bigger snowmaker than we’ve seen this year. Models are still all over the place with the exact track and positioning with the trough; as you know in Colorado where this ends up makes all the difference!

Preliminary Palmer Divide Snowfall Forecast

We are on the very edge of what we can see with our shorter range models, so we are taking an average between all the models we can see and some of the ensembles. Keep in mind, it is still very early in the evolution of this storm meaning; THESE SNOWFALL FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. Whether upwards with snow or downwards remains to be seen!

As of right now, models are really honing in on that 3-4 inch range for the Castle Rock area, so as of now I like the lower ends of these ranges until I see different in the data.

Snow Storm | Castle Rock Weather | Castle Rock CO Weather | Palmer Divide Weather | Snow | Snowfall Forecast | January 22, 2018

Preliminary expected snowfall ranges for this weekend’s storm along the Palmer Divide region. These amounts will change between now and Sunday!

What To Look Out for Over The Next Several Days

From a forecast standpoint, the models will bounce up and down on the snow over the next few days. Given how this year has gone, I would not be surprised to see these totals drop as we move closer to the weekend, however the POTENTIAL is there for them to actually go up. This storm is a bit of a different beast than what we’ve seen so far this year.

  • If you are traveling to the mountains, keep an eye on later in the day Saturday and most of the day Sunday. I would expect significant travel impacts to develop.
  • As of right now, moderate travel impacts will be most likely along the Palmer Divide late Saturday into early Sunday.
  • Outdoor plans and activities along the Palmer Divide region may be impacted especially on Sunday. If the storm speeds up expect possible impacts later in the day on Saturday (think evening and overnight hours)
  • This is not a “rush to the store and buy all the milk and bread” type storm, no matter what TV and social media tells you! Even on the high end, most areas are not expected to see more than 5-7 inches of snow.
  • Don’t believe the hype, it’s been a quiet weather year so I suspect some TV stations and a lot of social media groups will attempt to hype this storm and get their ratings up. We will maintain a more level-headed approach and tell you what we are seeing with the latest data.

    Stay tuned here or to whatever your favorite (RELIABLE) weather source is for updates to the forecast over the next few days.

Jan 14

Snow Returns Late Tonight to Palmer Divide

A quick update on the storm system moving through this evening and into tomorrow; this is what we like to call a classic “back door” cold front. Cold temperatures to our Northeast will back into Colorado along the front range. With this storm system there’s enough moisture that lift associated with the cold front should be able to saturate the atmosphere and squeeze a bit of snow out.

Winter Weather | Castle Rock CO Weather | Weather Castle Rock CO | Palmer Divide Weather | Snow Storm | Colorado Weather

Expected snowfall totals for the Palmer Divide area through Monday afternoon.

As you can see from above, the snowfall accumulations shown by the models are pretty light. This is what we’d expect with this type of storm system, we just don’t see big snowfalls from these types of storms. In fact, most of our storms this year have shown similar characteristics to this one, so don’t expect heavy snowfall or high accumulations with this one.

What to Expect for this Storm

When

Snow should begin during the late night and early morning hours, Monday morning will see snowfall by dawn and continuing into the afternoon hours. Most models are showing snow accumulation beginning around 5AM, so expect snowfall to start between 3AM-6AM, this means the morning commute may need to be watched.

 

Hazards

Slick roads will be possible for some areas as snow begins to accumulate in the morning. We’ve seen several instances this year where even a small amount of snow can cause issues if it has a layer of ice underneath. Icy conditions will be possible so expect the potential for minor to moderate travel issues during the Monday morning commute.

Snowfall Accumulation

  • Castle Rock
    • 0-2 inches total accumulation expected for the immediate Castle Rock area
  • Areas South and West of Castle Rock (Palmer Divide, Sedalia, etc…)
    • 1-3 inch range for snowfall
  • South Denver Suburbs
    • 0-2 inches of accumulation expected, some of the Southeastern parts of Denver may fall in the 1=3 inch range
  • Elbert Area (Southeast of Castle Rock )
    • 0-3 inches, models are a bit more spread for these areas with some in the 0.5 – 1 inch range with others in the 1-3 inch range. Total snowfall should fall between the 0-3 inch range with higher bias towards accumulations around 1 inch or less.