Snow! Monday Re-cap and Tuesday Outlook

Monday’s Snow Expected but Location and Intensity Was a Surprise

Monday’s weather was highlighted by the arrival of a front and surface low pressure system Monday morning and into the afternoon. This caused a couple of things to happen along the front range of Colorado:

  • Moisture increased as the surface low moved into Colorado
  • A shift in winds caused up-slope, because of the warmer temperatures on the ground and the colder temperatures aloft, we saw convection initiate along the front range foothills and plains.
  • Due to the intense lift (from combined convection and up-slope) some areas saw intense areas of rain, others intense areas of snow and others thunderstorms.
  • Keep in mind, spring in Colorado is a roller coaster. One may see snow, hail, rain and tornadoes all in the same day.

Convective Snowstorms

To understand how our weather turned out yesterday we’ll cover a coupe of weather basics. Convection of air is caused when warm moist air rises into a cooler, drier layer of air aloft. Yesterday we had an excellent set up for this as it was quite warm in the morning. A surface low and associated cold front enhanced moisture and lift available along the front range.

thunder

Due to this process most areas saw thunderstorms yesterday, thunder was heard from Fort Morgan to Highlands Ranch at one point or another. South of Denver, temperatures dropped due to the cold front, this allowed snow to fall from these thunderstorms.

If one of these bands of convection sets up over an area and is producing snowfall, it can result in a period of quick, intense snowfall.

3-8-2016 9-54-48 AM

Models have a hard time predicting stuff like this. In fact, none of the models except for one had any snowfall accumulating South of Denver. These types of setups can catch meteorologists off guard, we can generally tell if there will be convective snow in a forecast, but it is very difficult to predict where it will be or how intense it becomes.

More Snow Expected Tuesday

3-8-2016 10-00-16 AM

There is still quite a bit of moisture in the air today along the front range. The energy left over from yesterday’s front and storm systems could combine later this afternoon and into the evening to produce up-slope again along the front range. It is looking likely that a shift in the winds this evening will mean another shot of snow and rain for areas along the front range. Denver and points North should mainly see rain but higher altitudes South of Denver (Palmer Divide, Castle Rock, Parker, etc…) will likely see snow.

Just like yesterday, some areas may see heavier bursts of snow for a short period of time but overall accumulation (if any) look light. After Tuesday we should see a return to warmer, drier and spring-like weather. I’ll have a post up about that on Wednesday most likely.

One note: with all the spring-like weather it is easy to say winter is over. I’ve seen some media outlets and online blogs already declaring winter over for Colorado. Don’t be so sure! A lot of models are hinting at “something” coming later this month, so don’t be fooled!

Castle Rock Weekend Outlook Mar 4-6, 2016

At the risk of sounding like a broken record… This weekend will feature more above average temperatures and wind.

WinterWxWeekendOutlook_Mar4-6-2016CR

The weather hasn’t been too terribly exciting along the front of Colorado for the past few weeks, not since the beginning of February have we seen significant snowfall or storms. Expect warm days and nights over the weekend with daytime and nighttime temperatures well above average. The wind will stick around too, the worst wind conditions will most likely come later in the day on Sunday in advance of a storm system. If you are out and about this weekend remember the sunscreen!

Monday Looks Like Best Chance for Moisture

3-4-2016 12-20-49 PM

GFS total Moisture through 11pm Monday. QPF (qualitative precipitation forecast)

A small storm system moving through on Monday into Tuesday gives us the best chance for moisture along the front range. The GFS predicts about .5 inches of precip. for Denver which given how temperatures along the front range will reach the 50’s I imagine most of this will fall as rain.

The bad news is when I fast forward the model out another 7 days, I see no more significant moisture east of the divide. The mountains look to get some decent shots of snow over the next 7 days but the front range will be lacking in that department.

When’s the Next Big Snow Storm?

That’s the big question right now, at the current time I don’t see anything significant on the horizon as far as a major storm system. That’s not to say that things couldn’t change very quickly though and I’ve discussed before how long and medium range models are good for a “general” look at the weather but, they can change quickly and are sometimes not terribly accurate.

Looking at the next 7-10 days I see a lot of this:

jet_mar2016

This flat orientation is going to be great for California’s drought as it will bring a ton of moisture to that area. For Colorado it is mediocre at best for our mountains and not good for the Eastern half of our state. Any moisture gets wrung out in California, leaving only a bit left of our mountains and by the time it makes it to Denver, the air is very dry.

The later we go into March, the less our chance of a major snowstorm is. The longer days and higher sun angles make it more difficult with each day to accumulate large amounts of snow.

Not time to panic yet (if you’re waiting for the big blizzard this spring) but there are some causes of concern here.

I’ll have another update early next week with a more detailed longer term outlook.

Have a great weekend!

 

Red Flag Warning Issued for Wednesday March 2

red_flag_warning

Gusty winds and low humidity coupled with the serious lack of moisture the past few weeks will make for critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday. Any fires that start could grow out of control quickly, so any planned burning should be put off until conditions improve.

In addition, keep those cigarette butts in the car. Many fires start this way from careless tossing of these out the windows on roadways and highways.

.

day1otlk_fire

See More: National Weather Service Red Flag Warning

The storm prediction center has the critical fire conditions outlined in their Fire Weather Outlook today. In addition, the National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for those critical areas of Colorado. At this time the warning includes all of the eastern plains of Colorado including the city of Denver and the Palmer Divide area.

 

_cowxwarnings3-2-2016 8-26-43 AM

See More: Colorado Weather Watches and Warnings

Have a great Wednesday everyone and be safe!

 

March 1: First Day of Meteorological Spring and Severe Weather Season

Many of us are familiar with the astronomical seasons, this year spring starts on March 20, Meteorological spring starts today however. The main difference between these is the astronomical seasons are marked by position of the Earth relative to the sun. Meteorological seasons are marked more by temperature and weather fluctuations on the planet for certain times of the year.

Meteorological Spring and Colorado

As we transition into the spring season in Colorado it usually means big changes in our weather. Spring (both astronomical and meteorological) is a time of transition for our state. I often reference roller coaster to explain weather in Colorado during meteorological spring (march-may.)  because this period features wild fluctuations in temperatures and weather conditions. We may see several days of 70’s and near 80’s followed by a strong cold front and blizzard that drops feet of snow and features temperatures in the 20’s and 30’s. If you have lived in Colorado for any decent amount of time, you are not surprised when we get dumped on with inches if not feet of snow in May.

The Climate Prediction Center has issued an outlook for Meteorological spring and it can give us a glimpse of what we expect overall this year for spring in Colorado:

cpc_MAM2016_tempoutlookcpc_MAM2016_precipoutlook

The setup we see here is pretty typical of what we would expect for an “El Nino’ type spring, warmer than average temperatures and above average precipitation. The CPC really says there are equal chances of being above or below average for temperature for most of Colorado minus the far Southern and Southeastern areas. I tend to agree with this thinking given the data I’ve seen so far, I think March will start off very warm and dry but transition into a cooler wetter period in the mid to second half of the month.

See Also: Western Ridge Over U.S. to Keep Colorado Warm and Dry for First Half of March

April and May are less clear, but if we go with what we would expect in an El Nino year, we should see some big temperature swings and above average precipitation. There are some concerns about how quickly the El Nino breaks down as that could drastically alter what we see for weather in Colorado this year, breaking down too slowly or quickly could alter our weather pattern for the spring quite drastically. This is a topic I’ll cover another day, but one to keep in mind.

Start of Severe Weather Season

In Colorado we don’t often see much severe weather early in Meteorological spring, but we do get quite a bit more active towards April and May. The rest of the U.S. however, the changing position of the jet stream, combined with greater daytime heating and a colder atmosphere aloft begins to kick of some nasty weather in areas of the country.

March U.S. Tornado Risk

Credit: The Weather Channel

March severe weather generally occurs in the Southeastern part of the country (commonly referred to as Dixie Alley.) By later in the month with better heating and moisture return, states like Texas, Kansas and Missouri begin to see greater risk of severe weather.

Colorado doesn’t see too much severe weather in March as we tend to still be transitioning out of winter, however we do get the occasional front and energy combination for severe weather.

 

April U.S. Tornado Risk

Credit: The Weather Channel

 

As we reach April, the severe threat tends to shift to the Northwest a bit. States such as Oklahoma and Texas tend to see a much greater threat with a lingering threat of severe weather over Louisiana and the deep south.

Again, for Colorado we tend to see more thunderstorms but usually the heating is not quite enough to get severe storms on a large scale basis. That being said, we still have a bit of a risk through most of April.

 

 

May U.S. Tornado Risk

Credit: The Weather Channel

May, the final month in Meteorological spring is when things begin to get interesting across the great plains and Colorado. This is the first month where we typically have a good combination of heating and energy available in Colorado to sustain decent severe storms.

Typically, Colorado sees most of its severe weather (relating to tornadoes and hail) in the months of May, June and in some cases July.

 

 

Colorado Severe Weather Signs to Look For

There are a few signs the atmosphere will give us that could foretell whether or not we have an active severe weather season in Colorado and all these signs pertain to specific ingredients that severe weather needs:

  • Heating/ Instability
    • Severe storms need warm air and lots of it as energy
    • If we have a colder April and May, we can expect a lot of severe weather to struggle to form. In years like this we can have a more active late severe weather season if it warms up quickly into May
    • Strong heating allows warm air to rise at the surface into the cooler environment above, creating thunderstorms.
  • Moisture
    • This is a big one for Colorado as we are usually quite dry
    • The storm systems and fronts that move through Colorado need to set up in such a way that moisture is pushed into the state. This generally means a low sitting to our Southeast moving moisture into the state with a cold front behind it for lift and energy
  • Upper Level Winds/ Lift
    • This is a topic I can spend an entire article on (and I will soon) as Colorado has some unique features that allow us to get severe weather when most states wouldn’t
    • Generally we want the jet stream either overhead or slightly to our West. A surface low to our Southeast meaning winds near the ground are coming from the Southeast or East and winds aloft are out of the West. This would create wind shear that allows our storms to begin to rotate and sustain severe levels
    • We can also get instability and life behind cold fronts that move though. If the winds and energy come together in the right positions, we get a nice severe weather day

 

As we ramp up into Colorado’s severe weather season over the next few weeks, I will have quite a few articles about the mechanisms and processes that contribute to our severe weather in Colorado. So if you find that stuff at all interesting, stay tuned!

 

Western U.S. Ridge Keeps Colorado Very Warm and Dry

The last few days have seen some of the warmest weather we have seen all winter in the state of Colorado. Locations from the mountains, to the western slope, to the front range have been trending well above average. In fact, most of the U.S. in general saw above average temperatures over the last few days.

How Warm?

Saturday was one of our warmer days over the past week:

 

5pm Sat Feb 27 temp anamolies (how many degrees above average)

5pm Sat Feb 27 temp anomalies (how many degrees above average)

The temperature anomaly map illustrated what I have affectionately termed the “Blow Torch” that has been our weather for most of February. I’ve discussed before how this is not entirely unusual for February as most Colorado natives will recall that February generally tends to be one of our calmer and warmer months during the winter season.

With that in mind, our average high for for this time in February is int he 40’s so our high of 71.5 in Castle Rock was well above average today!

Note: the record high for Castle Rock for February 27 is 69 degrees, according to my station we reached 71.5. My station is not the official record however, that is kept at Centennial. So we’ll just call it an “unofficial record.”

Early March Outlook and When Does the Pattern Change?

6-10 Day Outlook (The Next Week or So)

The next 6-10 days looks like more of the same, the latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows the following:

march2016_CPC_tempoutlook_6to10daymarch2016_CPC_precipoutlook_6to10day

The big takeaways here are the much above average chance of warmer than average temperatures and the equal chance of above or below average precipitation. An equal chance does not give us a lot of information about whether it will be wetter or not in the next 6-10 days so we need to look at something else to see.

When I look at the models for the next week I see something that is very similar to what we’ve seen for the last few weeks, a big ridge camping out over the Western U.S. This will keep us warm and dry overall.

Euro - Notice the ridge of warm air stationed over the Western U.S.

Euro – Notice the ridge of warm air stationed over the Western U.S.

Looking at several different models for the next 7 or so days, you see this ridge feature in every single one. This gives me relatively high confidence of a warmer and drier period over the next week or so.

There is a chance of a disturbance or two this week, the forecast calls for a chance of rain or snow early in the week but honestly when I see things like this it does not give me much hope that the chance of precipitation will be decent.

I would not be surprised to see many areas get no rain or snow along the front range this week. The mountains may squeak out a few inches here and there but this pattern is not conducive to large, wet storms for us.

 

8-14 Day Outlook

As I show you the Climate Prediction Center outlooks for the 8-14 days you will notice many similarities to the 6-10 day period.

march2016_CPC_tempoutlook_8to14daymarch2016_CPC_precipoutlook_8to14day

One thing to notice though is that event though the ridge remains over the U.S. it has shifted to the East of Colorado for the most part. I’ve mentioned in the past that we would look to late February or early March for a pattern shift to signal a stormier March and April. This may be one of those signs, the shift in the ridge along with the increased chance of above average precipitation (image on the right calls for a high chance of above average precipitation) may be the outlook just beginning to pick up on a signal of chance in the atmosphere.

Again we can look at the farthest reaches of our modeling for a similar sign:

gfs850mwindsconus

This image shows the GFS model about as far out as it will go. This shows mid-lower level winds and features for 5am on Saturday March 12. Notice the rather large trough feature in the middle of the U.S.

We know that for Colorado the position of a feature like this is the difference between the front range receiving no snow (or rain) or several feet of snow (or many inches of rain.)

As this is very far out on the GFS’s scale, the accuracy of the position is not what we are looking for here. What we are looking for is that this model is picking up on some sort of large trough feature around this time period.

gfs850mwindsconus2

If we forward this model to as far out as it will go (Monday March 14 at 5pm) we see a couple of other interesting features. Again position is not important here but the appearance of a closed low to our East and a trough to our west is encouraging.

Seeing features like this develop raises another flag about a possible pattern shift sometime in mid to late March. Troughs showing up in the atmosphere is something we have not seen most of February and was responsible for our abnormally warm and dry weather. If these troughs do indeed establish in March, we could be looking at a period of extended storminess.

 

Summary

The next week to two weeks is going to feature more of the same for the front range of Colorado. Expect warm temperatures and dry, windy conditions. Expect this pattern to likely stay established through 10-14 days, however towards the end of the 14 day period we will be looking to confirm the model’s prediction of a pattern change. This would mean a wetter and stormier middle and second half of March.

Keep in mind, if temperatures remain well above average (very possible) a lot of this moisture could fall as rain or heavy wet snow. This would be a similar situation to what we saw in October along the front range of Colorado.

I will be showing these models a lot over the next week or two as I try to confirm if we get a pattern shift towards the second half of the month. If this verifies, we could start to see more interesting weather by that time period.

Stay tuned!

 

Castle Rock Weekend Weather Outlook for Feb 26-28

WinterWxWeekendOutlook2_Feb26-28-2016CR

Friday February 26, 2016

Friday is a day that will feature light winds and clear skies. Temperatures will be pleasant near 60 for the Castle Rock area and in the low 60’s for Denver and nearby areas. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30’s.

Saturday February 27, 2016

Mostly clear skies for Saturday with temperatures generally in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Castle Rock is currently projected to be just shy of 70, but if we get a little help from some down-sloping winds (possible in the afternoon) we could see the 70’s for many areas South of Denver. Nighttime temperatures will be in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s for most areas.

Sunday February 28, 2016

Sunday will be slightly cooler but still feature well above average temperatures. Many areas will be in the lower 60’s during the day and mid to upper 30’s overnight under mostly clear skies and a bit of breezy conditions here and there.

 

Severe Weather Outbreak Likely in Southeastern U.S.

Severe Weather Outbreak Likely for Southeastern U.S. Please Warn Your Friends and Family in the Area. The possibility of violent, long track tornadoes is high.

 

Summary

As the storm system responsible for our snow in Colorado moves off the Southeast it will spawn some pretty nasty weather on the front end of the system. The Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk over portions of Southeastern Louisiana, South Alabaman and Mississippi. This is not entirely unusual for this time of year for these areas, we have seen several early seasons severe weather outbreaks in this area in the last few years.

I know this page is mainly dedicated to Colorado weather, however many of us have friends and family all across the country. This will be a serious situation as we head into the afternoon and overnight hours on Tuesday. If you have friends or loved ones in the area, please tell them to be very alert.

day1otlk_1300

Here’s a closer look at the affected areas:

swo_sm_201602231341

Technical Synopsis

For those interested in more of the technical aspects of this severe weather setup, I will briefly go over a bit of that information right now. **Note all times I discuss are mountain so add 2 hours for Eastern… i.e. 8am is 10am and 8pm is 10pm.

Currently the storm system that moved through Colorado is intensifying over the Texas panhandle. A look at upper and lower level wind maps shows the upper low and closed surface low clearly:

Upper level jet

Upper level jet

Mid-Low level winds

Mid-Low level winds

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The two above images show the storm system as it was at 8am this morning.

The next two show the storm this afternoon as it has intensified and moved Eastward:

8pm storm position

8pm storm position

Low-mid level position as of 8pm

Low-mid level position as of 8pm

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So as you can see, a strong upper level jet (100 kt winds) and strong wind motion at the mid levels (60kt winds) should create ample wind shear in the atmosphere. This is usually called vertical shear or speed shear. Winds travelling at different speeds in the same direction in the atmosphere create a rolling motion:

speedshear

This is important as it is a critical component of creating and sustaining severe thunderstorms.

Illustration of the formation of a tornado. (1) A wind shear forms; surface winds roll air into a horizontal tube. (2) Updraft; Sun warmed air lifts a section of the vortex vertically. (3) A storm forms; one side of the vortex becomes stronger and forms into a thunderstorm, while the other side dies. (4) Supercell; A mesocyclone pulls more warm air up into the storm, allowing it to grow. The spin then intensifies and a rotating column of air will break through the wall cloud and hit the ground.

Image Credit: Chloreyweather.com

I’ll describe this setup briefly:

  1. Just like the image above, vertical wind shear create a rolling motion in the atmosphere
  2. As daytime heating increases and destabilizes the atmosphere you begin to get lift in the atmosphere
  3. Once a thunderstorm forms or moves along this rotating column of air it lifts and stretches this tube of rotating air
  4. As the storm becomes a super cell it uses the rotating air to pull warmer air into the storm, causing it to intensify

There are a few other factors that will allow these storms to be very strong across the South today. There is a ton of moisture and instability along the front edge of this storm system. That coupled with strong low level winds means Tornadoes will be likely.

I don’t want to get too much into the mechanics of severe weather in general yet, that’s another longer post for another day. When we get towards severe weather season in Colorado I will have a much longer post with more detail on how severe weather and tornadoes form.

In the meantime, if anyone wants to discuss any of this or has any questions, I can always be reached in the comments below or my facebook page.

 

Monday Winter Storm Update

A quick update on our winter storm set to affect the area tonight and into Tuesday morning; we will be backing off on snow totals slightly with the new data that has come in overnight. The biggest concern will be the lack of strong up slope and the warmer temperatures. As I have mentioned previously, this is not set to be a major storm, certainly nowhere near the impact of the storm we had to start February. Storm systems that slide out of the Northwest generally do not give us long and extended periods of snowfall to create a large storm.

My biggest concern at this time is that temperature gradient, there will be a very sharp line of more rain vs. more snow and whichever side your area lands on will see more snow or more rain and less snow. This can be seen quite well on the model runs:

GFS snowfall totals

GFS snowfall totals

NAM total snowfall

NAM total snowfall

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You can see the very clear East/West contrast in snowfall and the line sits right over Central Douglas County. If this line should move further east we would see higher snow totals around town, but this looks unlikely at this time. Right now it looks far more likely that the line could shift West and we could see little to no snow accumulation over the immediate suburbs South of Denver.

All models are in agreement with the forecast so far, even the SREF plumes support a good 2-4 inch range for the Castle Rock area and areas South of Denver.

SREF snowfall accumulation

SREF snowfall accumulation

Updated Snowfall Forecast

  • Denver: 0-3 inches of accumulation by Tuesday
  • Castle Rock:  2-4 inches possible; some areas in the Western part of town may see slightly closer to the 3-6 inch range
  • Western Suburbs: 4-8 inches, mainly in the foothills areas West of Denver and Southwestern Douglas County

Overall, very little change in the forecast from yesterday, Denver’s low end got bumped down slightly as some areas have a stronger possibility of no snow. Castle Rock proper has been bumped down slightly, the temperature gradient will play a big part and I think this storm will struggle to produce much more than 4 inches in and around town. The exception will be areas immediately West and South where 3-6 inches will be possible. Foothills have stayed the same, no change there.

Impacts

The storm still looks on track to affect us late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Probably midnight Tuesday through about noon Tuesday morning looks like the most likely time to see accumulating snowfall. It may begin snowing as early as 9-10pm Monday night though…

  • Strong northwesterly winds
  • Accumulating snow overnight Monday into Tuesday morning
    • Expect a slow commute Tuesday morning into work, especially if travelling from the South and West suburbs into Denver
  • Roads could be slushy and slick in some areas, leave extra time.

 

**One extra note:

2-22-2016 advisory

Latest Colorado Weather Watches and Warnings

There are Winter Weather Advisories out but currently they do not include Castle Rock, Denver or the other Southern Suburbs. We do not expect enough snowfall accumulation to make travel exceptionally dangerous, however do expect some slick spots coming in from Monument up through Castle Rock and into Denver Tuesday morning. So mainly, just expect a slow commute.

Snow day looks very unlikely with this storm for the Castle Rock area so don’t plan on a day off Tuesday.

I will have one more update regarding this storm late this evening as I get new data in, happy Monday!

 

Colorado Returns to Winter This Week

A small disturbance will bring an end to our warm and dry weather, at least temporarily late Monday into Tuesday.This is an interesting storm as it is on a track that does not usually equate to lots of accumulation but as it crosses the rockies into Southeastern Colorado it is expected to intensify very rapidly. This means that the short period of time it sits in that position could mean at least somewhat decent snowfall accumulation for certain areas along the front range.

Storm Track and Position

02212016_wxstory1The ridge responsible for our warm weather the last couple of weeks has begun to slide back to the Southwest just a bit. This will make enough room in the atmosphere for a storm system to move into the state late Monday.

Storms like this generally don’t bring us heavy snow accumulations as they are often quick to move through and out of the state before getting a chance to stall and dump snow over the front range.

What is interesting about this storm is how quickly it will intensify after it slides down over the Rockies and where this begins to occur is a quite favorable area for snowfall along the front range.

 

02212016_wxstory2

You can see in this model run of our low level winds, the storm looks to intensify as it moves into the Southeastern corner and off to the South into the Texas Panhandle. This is generally a very good area for big snow storms along the front range of Colorado, the problem is this particular storm system will move very quickly, meaning it won’t sit over Colorado long enough to really dump on us.

Every model has this system moving East very quickly so there is pretty high confidence in that area. Should the storm slow down at all it could mean slightly higher snow totals for some areas, but this looks unlikely at this point.

 

Model Predictions as of Sunday Afternoon

You can click on any of these images to see them full size, but here’s a quick look at what the models are predicting through Tuesday afternoon:

Nam QPF (how much liquid precipitation to expect)

Nam QPF (how much liquid precipitation to expect)

NAM total predicted snowfall using 10:1 ratio

NAM total predicted snowfall using 10:1 ratio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nam4K QPF (how much liquid precipitation to expect) The Nam4K is a higher resolution model

Nam4K QPF (how much liquid precipitation to expect) The Nam4K is a higher resolution model

Nam4K snowfall prediction using 10:1 ratio

Nam4K snowfall prediction using 10:1 ratio

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GFS QPF (how much liquid precipitation to expect)

GFS QPF (how much liquid precipitation to expect)

GFS predicted snowfall using 10:1 ratio

GFS predicted snowfall using 10:1 ratio

 

 

 

 

NCEP Snowfall total. This product averages several different model runs together.

NCEP Snowfall total. This product averages several different model runs together.

 

The general consensus with the major models is that the front range areas South and West of Denver will be the most favored. Temperatures are going to play a huge part of how much snow accumulates as well. With the warmer weather as of late, the ground is a bit warmer so it will take a bit more time to accumulate snow.

 

Current Forecast predictions:

  • Denver: 1-3 inches of accumulation by Tuesday
  • Castle Rock 3-6 inches possible, right now it looks like the lower end of that is most likely
  • Western Suburbs: 4-8 inches, mainly in the foothills areas West of Denver and Southwestern Douglas County

What to Expect with this Storm

The main impacts of this storm will be felt late Monday night into Tuesday morning:

  • Strong northwesterly winds
  • Accumulating snow overnight Monday into Tuesday morning
    • Expect a slower commute Tuesday morning into work
  • Roads will most likely be slushy and possibly snow packed Tuesday morning, especially for areas South and West of Denver.

As of right now, no weather watches or warnings have been issued, but we will keep an eye on this storm and update our site as needed.

As always, you can check for Colorado watches and warnings here: Mountain Wave Weather Watches and Warnings

Stay tuned!

 

Castle Rock Weather Weekend Outlook for Feb 19-21

WinterWxWeekendOutlook2_Jan19-21-2016CR

Friday February 19, 2016

The day has started out windy and will remain that way into the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be nice in the mid 60’s but the gusty winds may make it feel a bit cooler. As we move into the evening, winds will slowly begin to let up and skies will clear. Expect warm overnight temperatures in the mid and upper 30’s.

Saturday February 20, 2016

Mostly clear skies with some high clouds will start the day. Temperatures will be just a touch cooler but the winds should be lighter which will make for an excellent day to be outdoors. We will generally see highs in the low to mid 60’s during the day and overnight temperatures in the low to mid 30’s.

Sunday February 21, 2016

850mbtempc_02212016

Sunday looks to be our transition day… what are we transitioning to next week? A slightly cooler and wetter period and overall the pattern change will be short lived. A cold front will just brush Northeastern Colorado sometime on Sunday which means we will see cooler temperatures.

As this front moves through, it may shift our winds and bring us enough energy for a chance of  precipitation. The bad news for snow lovers is that most models have precipitation falling as rain and no accumulation due to warm temperatures should any switch over to snow.

Sunday will not be a bad day overall, any rain and snow chances show up in the Monday-Tuesday time-frame.

We’ll have any updates on that weak storm system and front should they become necessary.

Have a great weekend!